Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, January 22th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the three-day weekend. Stocks are helping to boost bonds with sizable losses in the major indexes. The Dow is currently down 150 points while the Nasdaq has lost 75 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32 (2.75%), but weakness late Friday should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Friday’s early levels. The financial markets were closed yesterday for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday.

10/32

Bonds

30 yr - 2.75%

150

Dow

24,556

75

NASDAQ

7,081

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Positive

Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

December's Existing Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The National Association of Realtors announced a 6.4% decline in home resales last month. That was a bigger decline than analysts were expecting, meaning the housing sector was softer than many had though. Because a weakening housing sector makes broader economic growth more difficult, this was favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

None

Tomorrow has nothing of importance set for release. The rest of the week has three more pieces of economic data scheduled, but two of them will not happen because of the shutdown. One of the delayed reports is not only the most influential of the week, it is also one of the more important monthly reports.

Medium

Unknown

Domestic Political Issues

There does not appear to be much progress being made in ending the partial government shutdown. As we roll into the second month of the impasse this week, reports are starting to be delayed for a second time. Fortunately, many of the reports that draw the most attention have not been affected by the shutdown. That said, there are still some that do affect mortgage rates and are considered important that have not been released yet, preventing the markets and the Fed from having all the information they usually rely on. The longer this drags on, the bigger the problem it becomes for market participants and FOMC members. Without that data, it is difficult to gauge overall economic growth and the status of the economy.

---

Unknown

None

Overall, no day stands out as a strong candidate for most active day of the week. There is little data for the markets to digest, leaving stocks to be the focus several days. If the major stock indexes remain fairly calm, bonds and mortgage rates should follow suit. On the other hand, active stock markets could lead to a noticeable move in mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.